Retail is not surging. It is not collapsing either.
New forecasts suggest U.S. retail real estate is positioned to hold steady through 2026 and into 2027, supported by limited new construction, disciplined tenant expansion, and durable demand in necessity-based categories.
After years of under building, retail supply remains constrained. That dynamic continues to benefit well-located neighborhood and community shopping centers, particularly those anchored by grocery, fitness, discount, and service-oriented tenants.
While store closure headlines dominate national news, the underlying real estate tells a different story. Big-box vacancies are being actively re-leased to tenants that align with current consumer behavior. Fitness operators, discount retailers, specialty grocers, and experiential concepts are stepping into former department store and junior anchor spaces, keeping centers productive and traffic consistent.
Retail is consolidating around scale, efficiency, and daily-use relevance. Expansion continues, just in categories tied to recurring consumer habits rather than discretionary spending.
Why This Matters for Investors
A stabilized environment often rewards disciplined underwriting and active asset management. When supply is limited and tenant demand remains steady, owners can focus on lease execution, rent growth, and operational improvements that drive long-term NOI expansion.
Retail is no longer in a rapid recovery phase. It is operating in a more normalized cycle, defined by balance rather than volatility.
Inside This Month’s Criterion Newsletter
In our March Criterion Newsletter, we cover:
Why experiential and necessity-based tenants are driving the current retail cycle
What limited new supply means for rent growth and occupancy
Where capital is flowing as pricing stabilizes
Detailed project-level updates across our operating centers and active developments
Updates on upcoming acquisitions and pipeline opportunities
Retail may not be making dramatic headlines. But it is doing what durable asset classes are designed to do.
Read the full March Criterion Newsletter here:
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